'07 Preview: Crew looking to go from worst to first

Soccer Betting Lines

04/05/2007 - Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's pretty obvious that the Columbus Crew would like to improve on its 2006 season. Last season, the Crew finished with the worst record in Major League Soccer at 8-15-9 in head coach Sigi Schmid's first season at the helm.

"Last year was disappointing," he said. "It was a year that we were bringing players together. We kept acquiring players throughout the year and with the amount of injuries that we had, we never established any cohesion."

In 2007, Schmid has a lineup that he thinks can compete because it is relatively injury free and has had a chance to mesh during preseason training.

"The players are here now," Schmid said. "We aren't gathering as many players. They are getting a chance to play together and getting a chance to know each other in the preseason at a much higher level than they did last year. If we can avoid the injuries we feel pretty confident in some of the attacking balance that we have been able to assemble."

The main attacker that has been added is forward Andy Herron, Chicago's leading scorer last season with nine goals and an assist. The Crew were able to pry him away from the Fire by offering up their first round pick in the 2007 MLS SuperDraft (number two pick overall).

"Andy Herron was a great addition for sure," Schmid said.

Along with the addition of Herron, the Crew have Ricardo Virtuoso, Joseph Ngwenya, Eddie Gaven and Jacob Thomas healthy and in the fold from day one.

"Virtuoso is now back for a whole season," Schmid said. "He joined us in midseason (last year) and wasn't really healthy until the last five games. Having Ngwenya here from day one instead of coming in at midseason and having Thomas healthy from the outset will also be a big help. He had to come from playing a European season last year straight into our season and never really got healthy. Eddie Gaven is also here now in preseason instead of joining us right before the season."

Young forwards Jason Garey and Kei Kamara also have another year of action under their belts, which will only help the Crew.

"All of those things together make us a better offensive team because we are all here at the start now with another year of experience," Schmid said.

One of the Crew's main goals in 2007 will also be to boast an improved midfield to go along with, what they think, is an improved attack.

"We think we have improved ourselves in the midfield with the acquisition of Danny O'Rourke among other players," Schmid said. "Ned Grabavoy and Duncan Oughton are here from day one. Improved play from the middle of the midfield, doing a better job of controlling the tempo of the game and improved offensive production are some things we need to establish."

O'Rourke was brought in on draft day in a trade with Toronto FC that also brought in goalkeeper Will Hesmer in exchange for a partial allocation.

"We expect Danny O'Rourke to be key in our midfield," Schmid said. "He is really the guy for us, the ball winner, the guy that is going to recover the ball for us."

Hesmer, who has been battling a hamstring injury in preseason, is in a three- man competition with Andy Guenbaum and Bill Gaudette to be the club's starting goalkeeper.

"I am very happy with the overall talent level of our goalkeepers," Schmid said. "Gaudette has vastly improved in his third year here in Columbus. Hesmer has had a hamstring injury and has trained the least, but in the time that he has trained he is somebody we are very happy with. He is somebody we have to wait to get healthy. It is an open competition among those three but it is going to be like it is with the forwards, the player who is in form is going to play."

With question marks in goal, in the midfield and up top this preseason, the steadying influence figures to be the backline.

Veteran Frankie Hejduk will team up with Rusty Pierce as the outside backs while Chad Marshall and Marcos Gonzalez will probably team up in the center.

"We played pretty well defensively in that area last year but if we can score some more goals at the other end of the field it will make it a little bit easier for our defense to play well," Schmid said.

If the Crew can stay healthy, mesh as a unit and peak at the right time, a dramatic improvement in 2007 doesn't seem out of the question.

"For us, the group that gets on the field and starts winning and producing good results when the regular season starts, those are the guys that are going to be playing," Schmid said.

Those questions will start to be answered when the Crew host Red Bull New York on April 7 to open the season.

"We have instilled the mindset that winning is a habit and losing is one as well this preseason," Schmid said. "We have won eight preseason games with only one loss (as of March 26) so if we can keep some semblance of that I will be very happy."

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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